Wednesday,27 March,2024
McCreadie Andias,
2024 is a year of ballots and bullets, a stress test both for the global democratic system and for the multiple conflicts stoking global instability. We still face a world in disarray, in upheaval and in dispute.
This time, however, any analysis hangs on the huge question mark of the intense series of elections that will shape the state of global order.The most important being the November 5th Elections in the world US.
With all-out hostilities in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan or Yemen, we are seeing the most active conflicts of any time since the end of the Second World War. How the various armed conflicts and the outcome of the US elections will impact the geopolitical agenda is an intriguing question.
But why the US Elections? , there will be more than 70 elections marked on the 2024 calendar and over 4 billion people will go to the polls in more than 70 countries. The European Union (EU), India, Pakistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, Mexico, Venezuela or Senegal. Yet it is only about the future of US democracy.
Why is the whole world now obsessed with American democracy?The possible outcome of the U.S. presidential election on Nov. 5 can turn the course of escalating global tensions. The political fallout of the brutal Israeli offensive in Gaza or the stalemate on the Ukraine front also depend on the presidential race in the United States.The cease fire questions, China’s bulging muscles, The North Korean nuclear threat, cracks in transatlantic unity and the increasingly direct accusations of double standards in the West’s loyalties are not unrelated to what happens in the United States on November 5th, 2024.
Two old fierce men will lock horns, President Joseph Biden and Former president Donald Trump.
Whoever will occupy the Next white House will play the biggest card in the direction of Global order.A return of Donald Trump to the White House would bring a drastic shift in the power relations and Washington’s position in each of these conflicts, from weapons’ supplies to the Ukrainian government or the support for Israel, to confrontation with Russia and China or North Korea.
Similarly , If Joe Biden were to be re-elected as US President, it would likely have several implications for the global world order, building on the policies and approaches established during his first term.
Let’s get into it. Who will call the shots? And how will they call the shots? And what will be the implications?
Let’s first look into Joe Biden and what he holds for Global order.
In terms of Multilateralism and Alliances, Biden’s re-election would likely reinforce his commitment to strengthening alliances and engaging in multilateral diplomacy. This could lead to greater coordination among democratic nations to address shared challenges such as climate change, global health crises, and economic inequality. The United States’ re-entry into the Paris Agreement on climate change under Biden demonstrates a renewed commitment to multilateralism and cooperation on global issues.
Under the China Policy. A second term for Biden would likely continue the US approach of competition and cooperation with China, focusing on areas such as trade, technology, human rights, and regional security. Joe Biden has continued many of Trump’s policies towards China, although with a greater emphasis on building alliances and multilateral cooperation to address shared challenges. The Biden administration has maintained tariffs on Chinese goods while also seeking to engage China on issues like climate change and non-proliferation.The Biden administration’s efforts to work with allies in the Indo-Pacific region through initiatives like the Quad (comprising the US, Japan, India, and Australia) demonstrate a strategy of collective engagement to counterbalance China’s influence.President Biden recently hosted President Xi at white House and the two leaders vowed to strengthen Bilateral ties despite their economic difficulties.
More weight falls into Russia Relations, Biden has always maintained his consistent criticism against President Vladimir Putin since he was Vice President under the Obama administration. His re-election would likely maintain a firm stance towards Russia, emphasizing deterrence against Russian aggression. He has shown continued support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and this might be more consequential to Russia if he Retains White House. Despite a huge criticism by US House Republicans on his extensive support to Ukraine and the financial implications, Biden has maintained that it is not the time to abandon Ukraine in this fight.The Biden administration has taken a more assertive stance towards Russia’s actions in Ukraine, providing additional military assistance to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia for its annexation of Crimea and its support for separatist rebels. The Biden administration has also sought to rally international support for Ukraine and has emphasized the importance of upholding Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This means Ukraine will continue to enjoy Washington’s support against Russia under Joe Biden which is quite uncertain if Trump assumes office.
Global Health and Pandemic Preparedness is a key strategic point glaring at the next white House tenant. The Covid-19 crisis and the post-covid implications have continued to cause global harm and its uncertainty lingers to who takes the bigger seat in the US Elections. Biden’s re-election would likely prioritize global health security and pandemic preparedness, recognizing the interconnectedness of health crises and the need for collective action to prevent and mitigate future pandemics.Building on initiatives like COVAX, the global vaccine distribution program, the Biden administration could lead efforts to strengthen international cooperation on vaccine production, distribution, and equitable access However, this could be under severe threat if Trump takes on power noting that during his tenure, he withdrew US’s support on the WHO health scheme.
A second term for Biden would likely see continued emphasis on promoting human rights and democracy worldwide, including support for civil society, press freedom, and democratic institutions. Notably, The Biden administration’s response to human rights abuses in countries like Myanmar, Belarus, and Saudi Arabia would reflect a commitment to upholding universal values and holding authoritarian regimes accountable.
Moving on to Donald Trump, the ‘Bold’ man has been perceived as the biggest danger to the world in 2024.
This is building on the policies and approaches established during his first term, his controversial sanctions, Strict policies,and bold decisions that are more contrary to the majority. But what does his presidency hold for Global order?
First, his popular Unilateralism Policy, “America First ” approach, characterized by a focus on US interests and a tendency towards unilateral action rather than multilateral cooperation would project a threat to the Global Cohesion. This reminds us that The Trump administration’s withdrew from international agreements and organizations such as the Paris Agreement on climate change, the Iran nuclear deal, and the World Health Organization (WHO) demonstrating a preference for prioritizing US interests over global cooperation.
On China Relations, Trump’s re-election would likely maintain a confrontational approach towards China, focusing on issues such as trade, technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and human rights abuses.The Trump administration’s ban on Chinese technology companies like Huawei and TikTok, as well as sanctions on Chinese officials involved in human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, reflect a policy of strategic competition and containment towards China.Trump’s blame on China as the mastermind behind the Covid-19 pandemic and his tough sanctions to the country might only worsen, There has been improved US-China relations under Biden, but we don’t know what will happen under Donal Trump.
A second term for Trump would also likely see continued emphasis on protectionist trade policies, including tariffs and trade restrictions aimed at reducing trade imbalances and protecting American industries.The trade war with China initiated by the Trump administration resulted in tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods, impacting global supply chains and causing economic uncertainty.
Trump’s re-election would also likely continue to strain US alliances and international partnerships, with continued pressure on NATO allies to increase defense spending and questioning the value of US security commitments.Trump’s repeated criticism of NATO members for not meeting their defense spending targets and his consideration of withdrawing US troops from countries like Germany have raised concerns about the future of transatlantic cooperation and collective security, His house Republicans have also criticized US’s extensive commitment to Ukraine against Russian invasion. Despite his desire for closer ties with Russia, Trump’s administration provided military assistance to Ukraine to support its efforts to defend against Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.However, Trump faced criticism for temporarily withholding military aid to Ukraine in 2019, which became the subject of impeachment proceedings amid allegations that he had pressured Ukrainian officials to investigate his political rivals in exchange for the release of the aid.
Trump’s approach to sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine was inconsistent, with some sanctions imposed or maintained while others were lifted or relaxed.Trump’s administration imposed sanctions on Russian individuals and entities involved in the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in eastern Ukraine, but he also sought to ease sanctions in certain areas, such as by lifting restrictions on Russian aluminum producer Rusal During his presidency, Donald Trump pursued a somewhat conciliatory approach towards Russia, often expressing admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and seeking to improve relations between the two countries. This was evident in his reluctance to criticize Russia for its interference in the 2016 US presidential election and his efforts to engage in diplomacy with Putin directly.If Trump wins the US Elections, all eyes would be glued on how he will handle the Russian invasion to Ukraine and whether he will extend his reconciliatory moves with Putin.
North Korea, a small Asian country, has posed a significant threat to the UN’s denuclearization policy which has been a big deal to the United States Government. Both administrations faced the challenge of dealing with North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Donald Trump pursued a high-profile diplomatic approach, meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un three times in an effort to negotiate denuclearization. However, these efforts did not lead to significant progress, and North Korea continued to develop its nuclear capabilities.
Joe Biden has signaled a willingness to engage with North Korea but has emphasized the importance of coordination with US allies and a clear strategy for denuclearization. The Biden administration has conducted a review of US policy towards North Korea and has indicated that it will take a more deliberate and calibrated approach to negotiations.
The Israel-Palestine Conflict has attracted similar positions for both Trump and Biden who have both vowed to support America’s unshaken allyship and support to Israel. Under the Trump administration, the United States pursued a heavily pro-Israeli stance, recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and moving the US embassy there, as well as unveiling a peace plan that was heavily criticized for favoring Israel.
A second term for Trump would likely see continued support for Israel and a focus on countering Iran’s influence in the Middle East region demonstrated by his administration’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and imposition of “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran.
Trump’s re-election will also potentially reduce US’s involvement in conflicts like the war in Yemen and the Syrian civil war demonstrating a shift in US policy towards the Middle East.
However, Joe Biden’s approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict has been more balanced, expressing support for a two-state solution and restoring humanitarian aid to the Palestinians that was cut off by the Trump administration.
However, Biden has also reaffirmed the US commitment to Israel’s security and opposed efforts to isolate or delegitimize Israel on the international stage.Overall, Donald Trump’s re-election as US President, as he exemplified during his first term, would likely perpetuate a foreign policy characterized by unilateralism, protectionism, and strategic competition, potentially leading to further tensions with adversaries and allies alike. While some may argue that such an approach serves US interests in the short term, it could also contribute to a more fragmented and unstable global world order in the long run.
Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s re-election as US President would likely reinforce a foreign policy approach characterized by diplomacy, multilateralism, and a commitment to democratic values, while also prioritizing strategic competition with countries like China and Russia.
Through continued engagement with allies and international institutions, a second Biden term could contribute to a more stable and cooperative global world order.
But all these are on the American’s hands, their democratic decision on November 5th will most likely determine the future of the Global order.
By McCreadie Andias,