Just when political analysts had almost successfully peddled it as a foregone conclusion that the August 2022 General Election would be a two-horse race between Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, a third force seems to have all but gate-crashed the party.
The news that One Kenya Alliance principals Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Gideon Moi (Kanu), Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) and Cyrus Jirongo are warming up to the Mt Kenya Unity Forum that is led by Martha Karua (Narc Kenya), William Kabogo (Tujibebe Wakenya), Justin Muturi (PNU) and Ndung’u Gethenji signals an interesting twist in the 2022 State House race. For three main reasons.
First, while an objective analysis would have shown Dr Ruto as having the lion’s share of Mt Kenya support – at least going by his winning streak in recent by-elections and crowd sizes – Raila Odinga had also started worming his way into the soul of the mountain if the kind of reception he has been receiving from the region since mending fences with the economic and political elite there is anything to go by.
The interesting part is that while the DP and the former prime minister are outsiders looking to the vote-rich Mountain region for votes ahead of next year’s polls, the Mt Kenya Unity forum comprises mainly voices from Mt Kenya. They are watu wa nyumba.
Notably, the Martha Karua-led outfit reflects the face of the Mountain. Mr Muturi, who hails from Kanyuambora in Mbeere, Embu County, a while back received endorsement from the governors of Mt Kenya East to act as their spokesperson. The governors who endorsed Mr Muturi include Meru’s Kiraitu Murungi, Martin Wambora (Embu) and Muthomi Njuki (Tharaka Nithi).
Kirinyaga region, which is geographically sandwiched between Central (Kikuyu) land and Mt Kenya East, is ably represented in the new outfit by political ‘Iron lady’ of Mt Kenya, Ms Karua, while Mr Gethenji and Mr Kabogo represent the Kikuyu community.
It is worth adding here that the unity forum brings on board even allies of the DP. Indeed, it is Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria, a close ally of Dr Ruto, who confirmed some weeks back that Ms Karua had been endorsed as the outfit’s spokesperson.
The fact that the Mt Kenya Unity Forum brings on board both Raila and Ruto allies leads us to the second most interesting thing about the outfit. To wit, that it is not so much about which camp bags the presidency next year, but rather what will be in it for the Mt Kenya region.
Besides Mt Kenya interests, the Ms Karua-led outfit, and forming our third interesting observation, has avoided both the Ruto and Raila camps, choosing instead to cast its lots with the OKA formation. This is interesting considering that the Mt Kenya region had hitherto been split between Ruto and Raila.
It is not inconceivable that the Karua camp could ride on the weaknesses of the two camps and the fact that it is a homegrown outfit to try and wrest some votes from both camps. This would have a significant effect on the 2022 election.
For one, it means that chances of either Raila or Ruto winning in the first round next have just grown slimmer, making the coalition that OKA and Karua’s formation are said to be crafting the likely swing camp for the highly likely presidential run-off.
Mark you, while the run-off may for now be expected to be between Ruto and Raila, it must not be forgotten that if Mudavadi and his western Kenya group manage to lock western in next year’s polls, and Kalonzo bags Ukambani and so on, then the Mt Kenya Unity forum manages to gain control of Mt Kenya votes, it is not unlikely that a run-off would pit either Ruto or Raila against the OKA-Mt Kenya unity forum coalition.
This brings us to how OKA/Mt Kenya forum may “pass through” Raila and Ruto to win the presidency.
In case of a run-off between Raila and whoever the Mt Kenya/OKA presidential flag bearer, Ruto’s base is likely to back the Mt Kenya/OKA team’s flag bearer to spite the ODM leader.
And in case of a run-off between Ruto and the OKA/Mt Kenya group, Raila’s supporters are likely to vote against Ruto. This means that if OKA/Mt Kenya manage to make it to the run-off, there is a high likelihood of forming the next government.
Failure to make it to the second round of voting, nevertheless, does not mean the nascent OKA/Mt Kenya camp is doomed.
All they need is to ensure they win enough parliamentary and county assembly seats across the country so that whoever wants to form the next government will have to talk to them for the government to run smoothly.
More fundamentally, coming a strong third also means that whoever wants to win in the second round has to sign a deal with them.
For now, you can take it to the bank that the foot soldiers of the newest political kid on the block, which a subcommittee is said to crafting, will between now and August be capitalising on the weaknesses of both Raila and Ruto and packaging itself as a safe pair of hands for the mountain and country.
If smartly executed, therefore, theirs could be a political masterstroke.