About a month ago Jubilee Party Vice Chairman David Murathe caused a political storm in the country when he came out strongly in support of a Raila Odinga presidency in 2022. In his words, 2022 belongs to Raila Odinga.
He asserted that it was time Kenyans rewarded the years of struggle of Raila Amollo Odinga. That Kenyans owed Raila a debt which ought to be paid by making him president in 2022 and that doing so will be recreating a Mandela moment in Kenya. To make this pronouncement more appealing Murathe convincingly averred that the Raila presidency will be a transitional one so that younger politicians would be processed for future leadership.
Coming from David Murathe this was not taken lightly by the country. Indeed, these pronouncements were shocking and sent political shivers down the spine of many. Murathe is not your average politician. Murathe is believed to have the president’s ear and whose sentiments are taken seriously within the Jubilee establishment.
So powerful is Murathe that he must be occupying a front seat within the “deep state”, if such exists. David Murathe is vice chairman of the Jubilee Party and so with all this power and influence he wields; it is not hard to see why people believe there is a deep state and why he would be a prominent member of the same.
Like David Murathe, Francis Atwoli is another powerful man. Atwoli and his symbolic Ildamat home in Kajiado point to his also being one of the most influential players in the political space in the country. And for that the deep state.
This explains why a day after Murathe’s pronouncements, Atwoli, the combative no-nonsense COTU-K Secretary General, called the press at his Illdamat home in Kajiado to announce that he was supporting and actually seconding Murathe’s proposal. He went ahead to give the qualities that made Raila the right man to succeed Uhuru Kenyatta in 2022.
And Just like that, Murathe and Atwoli had caused a major political upheaval in the country that seemed to upset in a monumental way those in Deputy President William Ruto’s camp, popularly referred to as Tangatanga. The Tangatanga brigade came out guns blazing.
Ruto, in a defiant mood and in a manner that seemed not only to implicate his boss in the Murathe-Atwoli scheme but also to directly challenge him, called their bluff. He said “bring it on.” Or in the words of Miguna Miguna “come baby come”.
That was not all, Ruto publicly mentioned and challenged the deep state. He challenged the system. Although he looked visibly subdued, he reiterated that he was not a coward and that he was ready for the Deep State and the system.
As expected, Raila laughed off Ruto’s misplaced courage and optimism although Raila’s observations seemed to be very innocent. He mocked Ruto , saying since he is the Deputy President, he must therefore be a member of that deep state.
But a keener look of what Raila said would be to say that Ruto himself has been a beneficiary of the system he laments about, the deep state. Raila has maintained and many people believe that he won the last the three last elections, especially the 2007 election.
Even if he didn’t win the other two, he came so close to winning that he could be believed by many if he says had it not been because of some forces, that is, the deep state, he would have been president in 2007, 2013 or 2017.
What then is the deep state? And do we have a deep state in Kenya?
A deep state is a concept that has been invoked sometimes in western countries. And its most simple meaning is that there are people outside the formal structures of government who wield more power than those in the actual power.
These people direct things; influence policy; have interests, sometimes even the interest of the country. They believe in the founding philosophy of a country so much so that if they see anybody including the Head of State trying to take actions that may derail what to them is the founding principles of that country they move in and stop. For example, if there was a deep state that believed in the socialist philosophy, they would have stopped Russia’s Mikhail Gorbachev.
But whatever the deep state is, there is no denying that even in Kenya there will be forces who for their own interest would want to see certain people occupying positions of power and stop certain people from occupying those positions. For this reason, Ruto would be justified to fear the deep state.
Looking at this country from 1963 when we became independent to date, I am convinced the deep state is difficult to handle. If they were easy to handle, Raila would have become president.
In the 2007 election, Raila carried the day in six out of eight provinces. Therefore, Kibaki must have been supported by certain forces to win the election.
It is therefore possible there is a deep state and going by what we can see now with most elected leaders toeing the president’s line, one is tempted to think all cannot be doing so because they are persuaded the president is right.
There must be some forces redirecting them. And if indeed there will be such forces, I have no doubt in my mind that Ruto cannot win a presidential election in 2022.